改进MACD波段划分 · 日频/周频双频率 · ETF成本 · 独立建模
将点位效率择时框架应用于全部32个申万一级行业指数，每个行业独立建模（独立波段划分 + 独立历史样本库）。回测口径：T日收盘信号 → T+1开盘买入 → T+2开盘卖出，含场内ETF成本（万3.5/单边）。
| 行业 | 日频年化 | 日频回撤 | 日频夏普 | 交易 | 周频年化 | 周频回撤 | 交易 | 信号 | 概率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 有色金属 | 21.09% | -36.03% | 0.87 | 241 | 16.11% | -48.24% | 129 | 看多 | 51.74% |
| 机械设备 | 20.62% | -31.65% | 0.97 | 251 | 11.08% | -39.76% | 119 | 看多 | 99.00% |
| 电子 | 19.44% | -36.71% | 0.77 | 283 | 14.64% | -33.87% | 121 | 看多 | 99.00% |
| 农林牧渔 | 18.15% | -33.10% | 0.76 | 223 | 12.92% | -33.10% | 131 | 看多 | 74.48% |
| 通信 | 18.06% | -23.63% | 0.76 | 269 | 11.09% | -28.82% | 129 | 看多 | 64.57% |
| 汽车 | 16.75% | -27.07% | 0.80 | 237 | 9.32% | -37.73% | 113 | 看多 | 82.85% |
| 国防军工 | 16.26% | -34.07% | 0.63 | 228 | 12.99% | -36.67% | 114 | 空仓 | 50.00% |
| 煤炭 | 16.16% | -34.58% | 0.69 | 215 | 10.40% | -41.87% | 124 | 空仓 | 33.89% |
| 建筑材料 | 15.50% | -33.84% | 0.67 | 223 | 12.54% | -34.46% | 125 | 看多 | 99.00% |
| 社会服务 | 14.31% | -33.46% | 0.55 | 217 | 12.94% | -36.82% | 117 | 看多 | 63.28% |
| 计算机 | 13.75% | -39.41% | 0.47 | 223 | 8.53% | -50.30% | 103 | 看多 | 99.00% |
| 钢铁 | 13.32% | -26.20% | 0.61 | 217 | 10.65% | -35.85% | 129 | 看多 | 75.74% |
| 交通运输 | 13.07% | -28.47% | 0.67 | 251 | 12.30% | -33.08% | 139 | 看多 | 73.04% |
| 家用电器 | 12.95% | -29.00% | 0.63 | 205 | 9.61% | -31.88% | 119 | 看多 | 65.03% |
| 银行 | 12.36% | -29.97% | 0.73 | 264 | 10.91% | -29.47% | 152 | 空仓 | 22.75% |
| 环保 | 11.83% | -38.95% | 0.52 | 187 | 9.89% | -38.99% | 103 | 看多 | 73.92% |
| 医药生物 | 11.31% | -28.61% | 0.48 | 238 | 7.78% | -29.18% | 123 | 空仓 | 48.68% |
| 基础化工 | 11.25% | -32.85% | 0.48 | 201 | 5.67% | -44.47% | 99 | 看多 | 99.00% |
| 美容护理 | 11.04% | -31.61% | 0.43 | 177 | 5.47% | -39.00% | 97 | 看多 | 65.33% |
| 建筑装饰 | 10.75% | -33.75% | 0.47 | 215 | 9.28% | -39.21% | 133 | 看多 | 99.00% |
| 石油石化 | 10.54% | -36.59% | 0.50 | 223 | 8.49% | -43.92% | 123 | 看多 | 69.63% |
| 采掘 | 10.47% | -32.30% | 0.40 | 143 | 3.72% | -40.51% | 81 | 看多 | 77.41% |
| 食品饮料 | 10.40% | -23.87% | 0.43 | 219 | 8.65% | -33.16% | 107 | 看多 | 68.53% |
| 房地产 | 10.18% | -30.34% | 0.40 | 241 | 7.69% | -34.73% | 133 | 看多 | 99.00% |
| 非银金融 | 9.82% | -49.48% | 0.36 | 230 | 10.78% | -46.63% | 132 | 空仓 | 38.49% |
| 轻工制造 | 8.94% | -34.67% | 0.39 | 203 | 4.21% | -34.80% | 115 | 看多 | 80.96% |
| 纺织服饰 | 8.92% | -34.51% | 0.36 | 217 | 3.57% | -37.58% | 113 | 看多 | 68.77% |
| 电力设备 | 8.74% | -33.23% | 0.30 | 243 | 3.52% | -46.30% | 123 | 看多 | 79.90% |
| 公用事业 | 8.71% | -32.36% | 0.39 | 217 | 8.76% | -37.61% | 125 | 看多 | 88.85% |
| 综合 | 8.60% | -45.14% | 0.31 | 219 | 6.86% | -46.56% | 129 | 看多 | 99.00% |
| 传媒 | 5.27% | -41.21% | 0.13 | 200 | 3.62% | -44.02% | 110 | 空仓 | 50.00% |
| 商贸零售 | 4.72% | -34.36% | 0.12 | 202 | 1.13% | -41.56% | 104 | 空仓 | 50.00% |
说明：各行业独立建模波段划分和历史样本池。回测采用日频检测 + 次日开盘成交 + 含ETF成本口径。 行业ETF通常波动更大，择时换手率高于宽基。多数周期性/成长性行业从择时中受益更大，防御性行业（如银行、公用事业）择时效果有限。